England’s chances of winning the World Cup 2026 are alive — but only just. They are in fourth place in the outright betting at 15/2 with the major UK bookmakers. France leads at 4/1, Spain follows at 6/1, Argentina sits at 7/1, and then there’s England.
Fourth favourite. Perennial nearly-men. A team that can look utterly unplayable one evening and then make Ghana’s goalkeeper’s afternoon feel like a quiet Sunday in the park the next.
- England topped Group L with seven points, beating Croatia 4-2 and Panama 2-0, drawing 0-0 with Ghana.
- Harry Kane has surpassed Pelé’s 13 World Cup goals and is level with Haaland in the Golden Boot race.
- Jude Bellingham has two goals and one assist across three games, performing at both ends of the pitch.
- The likely path runs through Mexico at altitude, then Brazil, then Argentina, then a final against France or Spain.
- Injuries to Reece James, Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice are serious and are not going away anytime soon.
The Night Dallas Made Everyone Believe
The 4-2 win over Croatia on 17 June at AT&T Stadium was the sort of performance that made you stop scrolling, put your phone down and actually watch. England registered 20 shots inside the penalty area — a new single-match World Cup record.
Harry Kane scored twice, breaking Gary Lineker’s England World Cup record of ten goals with a header in the 42nd minute. Jude Bellingham added a third with a diagonal run and low finish two minutes into the second half.
Marcus Rashford wrapped it up in the 85th after a pressing move that started in England’s own half. One Football reported that the market reacted immediately, shortening England’s odds to 15/2 after the game. And honestly, it was hard to argue.
The attacking intent, the press, the finishing — it was everything Thomas Tuchel had promised when he took the job. For about 45 minutes in Dallas, England looked like genuine World Cup winners.
Croatia scored twice, which slightly muddied the waters. Martin Baturina’s equaliser from outside the area in the 36th minute was excellent, and Petar Musa’s goal just before half-time raised questions about England’s defensive solidity.
Tuchel addressed it in his post-match comments. Still, Dallas was the night England made believers out of people who had written them off.
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Then Came Boston
Three days later, the 0-0 draw with Ghana at Gillette Stadium brought everyone back to earth with a thud. Ghana sat in a 4-5-1, defended deep, and England – with 78 per cent of the ball and 18 shots across 90 minutes – managed to create almost nothing worth talking about.
Kane had 19 touches in the entire match. Nineteen. That is the lowest he has recorded in any major tournament appearance where he played the full game. He then missed a late close-range chance that Tuchel admitted he could not explain afterwards.
Marc Guehi was the one bright spot — 143 touches and 126 completed passes, both World Cup records at that stage — and Saka, when he came on in the 65th minute, was immediately England’s most dangerous player and forced a fine save from Benjamin Asare.
But the bigger picture was uncomfortable. This England team visibly struggles when the opposition parks the bus. That is not a new problem. It is a very old and very English one.
Kane and Bellingham: The Reason to Keep Believing
Kane is playing the football of his life. Since joining Bayern Munich in 2023, he has scored 98 goals in 94 Bundesliga appearances. At this World Cup, he has now surpassed Pelé’s tally of 13 tournament goals and sits level with Erling Haaland in the Golden Boot race, just one behind Messi and Mbappé.
His late brace to rescue England against DR Congo in Atlanta — after the Three Lions had trailed since the seventh minute — was pure class when it mattered most.
As The Standard reported, England had looked tentative, conservative and aimless for long stretches of the match before Kane took over.
He headed a cross into the corner, then followed it up with a deep rocket the goalkeeper could not touch. “I’m feeling as good as I’ve ever felt,” Kane said afterwards. When he is at it, England has a chance against anyone.
And then there is Bellingham. ESPN noted that among the 198 midfielders who logged at least 100 minutes in the group stage, he ranked second in combined goals and assists, fourth in shots on target, ninth in ball recoveries in the attacking third, and also ninth in the defensive third.
He is doing everything at both ends. When England needs someone to drag them through, especially against Panama, Bellingham is the one doing the dragging.
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The Injuries That Could Derail Everything
Reece James has pulled up with yet another hamstring injury. Tino Livramento was ruled out before the tournament even started. Jarell Quansah has an ankle problem. England’s right-back situation, in short, is a mess.
Meanwhile, Saka is managing a serious Achilles issue. Sources told ESPN he is ready to push through it, but the medical staff have real reservations about what he can actually deliver in his current state.
Declan Rice is carrying a hamstring concern after playing 64 games for club and country this season. Elliot Anderson has a tight glute. It is not a great list.
What Actually Happens Next
Mexico, at the Azteca — at 2,240 metres above sea level, in front of a home crowd, and at a venue where Mexico has lost just twice in 89 competitive matches — is waiting in the round of 16. Beyond that sits Brazil, then Argentina, then potentially France in a final.
Yahoo’s Opta supercomputer currently gives England a 9.32 per cent chance of winning the trophy, down from 10.41 per cent before the knockouts started. Those numbers are not flattering.
But here is the honest truth: England’s statistical profile from the group stage is quietly impressive. Second in shots per possession and third in xG allowed per shot, and they are yet to concede a single high-quality chance.
In the last five major tournaments — World Cups and Euros since 2018 — only France has won more matches than England’s 16. Dallas is who they can be. Boston is who they sometimes are. Mexico will tell us which one turns up when it really counts.
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Sources & References:
- One Football– England’s odds were 15/2 after the Croatia game.
- The Standard – England had looked tentative, conservative and aimless for long stretches of the match before Kane took over.
