Four months. That’s roughly how long large parts of the UK have been living through some version of heat, drought, or both. So when forecasters started talking this week about a “turning point,” a lot of people understandably want to know what that actually means for their garden, their weekend plans, or the hosepipe ban they’ve been quietly ignoring. The short version: yes, it’s cooling down. No, the drought isn’t over. And September is still very much up in the air.
Here’s what’s really going on, pulled together from the Met Office, the Environment Agency and this week’s national weather coverage.
- This week is the turning point — cooler air and rain are moving in, but the south stays drier and warmer longer than the north.
- The drought isn’t over — one week of rain won’t undo months of record-low rainfall; hosepipe bans are likely to stay in place for weeks, possibly into autumn.
- This has been an exceptional summer — driest July on record for England and Wales, with 70%+ of England currently in drought.
- September could still bring more heat — the Met Office expects above-average temperatures with a chance of short hot spells, especially in the south, but confidence this far out is low.
- It’s part of a bigger pattern — officials are calling this the UK’s second consecutive drought summer, not a one-off.
Just How Bad Has This Summer Been?
Worth setting the scene, because the scale of this summer is part of why one cooler week doesn’t undo much.
England and Wales just had their driest July on record. Not “driest in a decade” — driest in a series of records that goes back to 1836, and in southern England, it was the driest month of any kind ever logged there. Spring wasn’t much better; it was the warmest on record for England and Wales, and June went on to become England’s hottest June in history. Put those together and you get a country that’s been running a rainfall deficit since before most people even switched the fans on.
The heatwave count itself gets a bit murky depending on who’s counting. Some outlets say three distinct heatwaves this summer, others say four or five — it really depends on how strictly you define a “heatwave” region by region, since the Met Office’s threshold changes depending on where you are in the country. What isn’t in dispute is that at least two of those spells pushed temperatures to 38C, and that the hot weather kept coming back rather than breaking properly.
The knock-on effects are the part people are feeling now. More than 70% of England is currently classed as being in drought, and something like 27 million people are living under some kind of water restriction. Nine water companies — Southern Water, South West Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water, Essex & Suffolk Water and Wessex Water among them — have brought in hosepipe bans across all or part of their areas, which is the widest set of restrictions since 2022. A handful of reservoirs, including Blagdon, Wimbleball, Hanningfield, Clywedog and the Dove Group, are sitting at what the Environment Agency calls “exceptionally low” for the time of year. And England and Wales have already had more wildfires this year than in the whole of 2025.
So when people say “the heatwave is ending,” it helps to be precise about what that actually refers to.
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What’s Changing This Week
ITV weather presenter Lucy Verasamy has been fairly blunt about it: the air mass is shifting to a northerly direction, and that alone is enough to knock several degrees off what most of the country has grown used to since late May.
Rain is coming, but not evenly. The north — Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England — already had a proper soaking over the weekend and has more on the way through the week. That’s genuinely useful relief for some of the drier corners up there. The south is a different story. Southern England and southern Wales are expected to stay largely dry until Thursday or so, when showers start appearing, some of them heavy and thundery. And here’s the catch: parts of the south-east haven’t seen rain since mid-June, so even a decent thunderstorm this week probably won’t be enough to touch the underlying drought. If anything, intense downpours on ground this baked tend to just run off the surface rather than soak in — so you can get flash flooding and still not really fix the water shortage.
Temperatures aren’t falling off a cliff so much as sliding down over several days. Roughly:
- South-east England: starts around 27–28C and muggy, drops to 26C Tuesday, 24C Wednesday and Thursday, then 21–22C by Friday
- South-west, Midlands, East Anglia, south Wales: a touch cooler throughout, ending around 19–21C
- Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England: 16–19C early on, sliding to about 16C by the weekend
If that sounds mild rather than dramatic, that’s sort of the point — but after months of near-constant heat, even a low-20s day is going to feel properly chilly to most people. A few forecasters have made exactly that observation this week.
What happens after Friday is a bit murkier. High pressure is expected to build back in around next weekend, but it’s being described as a “cooler high” — more sunshine, drier air, but nowhere near the intensity of July’s heat, and noticeably colder nights. Beyond that, the pattern looks likely to turn changeable again as Atlantic weather systems start pushing in toward the end of August.
So Is the Drought Actually Over?
No — and this is probably the most important thing to take away from all this. A week of rain, even a fairly wet one up north, doesn’t come close to reversing months of rainfall deficit. Water companies and the Environment Agency have both said, more or less consistently, that ending a drought like this one needs sustained rain over a long stretch, not a few days of showers. In the meantime, low river flows, algal blooms, fish deaths and worsening water quality are all still being reported as ongoing problems, and several companies say they’re still producing far more water than usual just to keep up with demand.
Practically, that means hosepipe bans currently in force across large chunks of England aren’t going anywhere soon. If you’re in an affected area, plan for restrictions to stick around into autumn unless there’s an unusually wet September — which, as it happens, is genuinely possible.
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Will There Be Another Heatwave in September?
This is where it’s worth being a little careful, because some headlines have run ahead of what the Met Office is actually saying.
The long-range outlook — covering late August through to around mid-September — points to temperatures being above average overall as the UK moves into meteorological autumn, with southern England the most likely to see extra warmth. There’s explicit mention of the possibility of “late season hot spells or heatwaves,” particularly down south. But the Met Office has also been upfront that confidence in the details is low this far out, and that anything beyond about five days can’t be forecast with the same precision as the short term.
Translated: a mild, sunny September looks fairly likely, and short bursts of heat aren’t off the table — but a repeat of this summer’s sustained, headline-grabbing heatwaves isn’t really what the current data supports. It’s also not unusual for the UK to get a warm September. 2023 is a good example — there was a proper heatwave in the first week of that September, with temperatures over 30C, well after summer was supposedly done.
It is also worth remembering that the UK can see a mini heatwave UK even after the main summer heat has faded. Last year’s late-season warmth showed how quickly temperatures can climb again when high pressure settles over the country. That does not mean September 2026 will repeat the same pattern, but it is one reason forecasters are keeping the possibility of another short hot spell on the table.
How Does This Compare to Previous Bad Summers?
The obvious comparison is 2022, the last time the UK had a drought and heatwave combination this severe. That year saw a national drought declared across large parts of England, Yorkshire Water’s first hosepipe ban in 27 years, and the UK’s first-ever recorded 40C day. This summer has followed a similar shape — repeated heatwaves, expanding drought areas, wider hosepipe restrictions — but with an even drier July, and the Environment Agency now reporting a bigger share of England in drought than back then. The chair of the National Drought Group has described the current situation as the second consecutive summer of drought, which is really the key point: this isn’t a freak one-off, it’s starting to look like a pattern across successive years.
What to Actually Expect Going Forward
- This week: noticeably cooler for everyone, with the north and west getting most of the rain and the south staying dry until later in the week
- Temperatures: gradually dropping from high-20s in the south-east down to low-20s/high-teens by Friday, with the north easing into the mid-teens
- Next weekend and beyond: drier and sunnier again under a “cooler high,” but with colder nights — not a return to peak summer heat
- Drought and hosepipe bans: likely to continue for weeks regardless of this week’s rain
- September: leaning warmer than average, with a real but uncertain chance of short hot spells, especially in the south
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Frequently Asked Questions
When does the UK heatwave actually end?
This week is the turning point — a northerly air shift is bringing cooler air and rain to most of the country. The south and south-east will lag behind the north in both cooling down and drying out.
Will this week’s rain end the drought?
Not on its own. It’ll help the north and west, but southern England in particular needs a lot more rain than one showery week can provide. Expect restrictions to stay in place.
Is another heatwave coming in September?
Maybe, but nothing’s confirmed. The Met Office is leaning toward a warmer-than-average September with a chance of short hot spells, especially down south — though they’re clear that confidence this far ahead is limited.
Why has 2026 had so many heatwaves?
Mostly a run of persistent high pressure combined with a record-dry spring and July. Some forecasters have pointed to broader ocean and atmospheric patterns as a contributing factor, but the Met Office’s own explanations have focused mainly on the dry, high-pressure conditions rather than any single cause.
Should I still be following hosepipe ban rules?
If your water company already has a ban in place, yes — assume it’s staying in effect through this cooler spell and probably into autumn, unless your region gets a genuinely wet September.
Sources & References:
- ITV News — “Is this the end of our heatwave summer?”
- LBC — “UK weather forecast for September, as Met Office predicts whether heatwave will last”
- Yorkshire Live / Examiner Live — “UK heatwave forecast for September 2026 as Met Office warns of ‘late season hot spells'”
- Heart Radio — “Met Office alert the UK to even more sweltering heatwaves”
- GOV UK / Environment Agency — “Dry weather and drought in England: 31 July to 6 August 2026”
Based on Met Office long-range forecasts, Environment Agency drought reporting, ITV News weather coverage, and statements from UK water companies as of 18 August 2026. Long-range weather and drought outlooks change as new data comes in, so treat the September figures in particular as a current best guess rather than a fixed forecast.
